The Economist’s outlook for Africa in 2009 is so-so same as last year. There are few bright spots though the opportunities in Agricultural development, power generation and also in the hope for the continued transformation of the continent as more of her population get access to mobile phones. Nothing new however. Clips from the article after the jump.
Food: The consequences of a two-thirds rise in food prices over the past two years have been food riots, strikes, price controls, export bans and a massive increase in subsidy costs. All this is reversing recent gains in the fight against poverty.
More Food: Not before time: farming may be the dominant sector in sub-Saharan Africa, but productivity is the lowest in the world. The green revolution that helped drive development in Asia is not happening. The region as a whole has enormous farm potential, but fulfilling it will require better institutions and infrastructure.
Power: Development is also impeded by a serious electricity shortage. At least 30 out of the 47 SSA countries have suffered severe energy troubles in recent years. Booming domestic demand and a lack of new investment (including in South Africa, the local “powerhouse”) are to blame. If all the countries raised their power infrastructure to the standard of the continent’s best performers (such as Mauritius), GDP growth per head could rise by an additional two percentage points annually. Significant investment in new plant and power-lines that cross national borders is under way—often drawing in the private sector—but many projects remain on the drawing board, and shortages will persist.
Phones: Another bright spot will be the telecoms sector, especially mobile phones. Africans have as much appetite for communicating as the rest of the world and mobile telephony has enabled them to bypass the old-style telecoms infrastructure. The trend will be reinforced by the addition of eastern Africa to the global fibre-optic system in 2009-10 and the opening of new links up the west coast. Speedier and cheaper connections will boost internal trade and encourage global ties.
From the Economist Outlook for 2009
