The chart above shows the budget forecast for the US economy overlaid with what really happened in the last 28 years. The whiskers are the predictions and the solid line shows what really happened. Macro economic forecasts are useful but are mostly inaccurate. Why then are public debates conducted as if budget forecast were the Holy Grail?
When next you hear anyone make authoritative statements about the future if the US economy, just remember that chances are that they are wrong. And the farther into the future those predictions go the more certain you can be that they will miss the mark.
Macro economic forecasts are right as long as there are no economic corrections. On the other hand corrections are what make capitalism tick.
MOOTBOXEcon. In Plain English
About Me
I write about subjects that I love: data, business, social Entrepreneurship, giving and other assorted randomness. I also enjoy reading and recommending business books.
The business of digits and the digits in business. I get paid to ask questions.
Find Me
My Wall
